SS Lesson #2: Pre-Event Planning & Assessment

Will you just Survive or Thrive?

Planning will determine whether an unexpected event becomes an Adventure or a Disaster.

HOPE Is NOT A PLAN

“Then whosoever heareth the sound of the trumpet, and taketh not warning; if the sword come, and take him away, his blood shall be upon his own head. He heard the sound of the trumpet, and took not warning; his blood shall be upon him. But he that taketh warning shall deliver his soul. But if the watchman see the sword come, and blow not the trumpet, and the people be not warned; if the sword come, and take [any] person from among them, he is taken away in his iniquity; but his blood will I require at the watchman’s hand.” Ezekiel 33:4

“Too often we bask in our comfortable complacency and rationalize that the ravages of war, economic disaster, famine, and earthquake cannot happen here. Those who believe this are either not acquainted with the revelations of the Lord, or they do not believe them. Those who smugly think these calamities will not happen, that they somehow will be set aside because of the righteousness of the Saints, are deceived and will rue  the day they harbored such a delusion. The Lord has  warned and forewarned us against a day of great tribulation and given us counsel, through His servants, on how we can be prepared for these difficult times. Have we heeded His counsel?”   -- Pres. Ezra T. Benson

5 Levels of Preparation

Level 0: Every emergency is a disaster

•Less than two weeks of food in the house

•No water purification system

•No bug-out bag / 72 hr. kit

•No defensive weapons

•No way to produce their own food

•No physical gold or silver

•No tangible assets to barter

Failure to Plan is Planning to Fail

Level 1: Can Survive Two Weeks of Minor Emergency 

(such as ice storm)

•Have sufficient food and water for two weeks of emergency

•Able to heat their home for two weeks without relying on the power grid by use of kerosene heater or fireplace

•Able to cook their meals for two weeks without relying on the power grid

•Has a first aid kit

•Likely has no defensive weapons

•Must leave their home after two weeks due to lack of preparation

Level 2: Can Survive One Month of an Emergency

(such as major hurricane)

•Likely has a portable power generator and sufficient fuel for one month of operation

•Has handguns or shotgun and the skills to defend their home

•Has a month’s work of canned goods to eat

•Has sufficient prescription medicines for 30 days

•Has enough batteries for power a portable radio for 30 days

Level 3: Can Survive Three Months of an Emergency

(such as martial law or impacting earthquake)

•Has a deep-short term pantry

•Likely has a water purification system

•Likely has defensive weapon for each family member

•Likely has some type of neighborhood safety watch or

•24 hour security watch rotation at the home

•Has stocked wood to burn in fireplace and/or iron stove

•Has communication gear to keep track of local and world events

•Has means to recharge batteries without relying on power grid

•Has three months of prescription medicines

Level 4: Can Survive One Year of an Emergency

(such as currency devaluation, economic depression)

•Has a deep short- and long-term food pantry

•Likely has their own garden to produce food

•Likely has small-sized farm animals to produce protein (chickens, goats, rabbits)

•Has a deep supply of ammo (2000+ rounds per weapon)

•Has a spare weapon in event of damage

•Has means to produce herbal medicines to replace prescriptions

•Has a long-term store of antibiotics

•Likely has dog for security watch

•Has full 24 hour rotation of security watch on the home (requires 6 adults)

•Has secondary off-site storage of food, weapons, and ammo

•Is ready to bug-out with full hiking and camping gear, if security situation degrades

•Is able to educate their children at home

Level 5: Can Survive Indefinitely from their Home during a 

Multi-year National Emergency Situation

•Has a fully functioning large garden or small farm for food production

•Is able to can and store the results of food harvest for the coming year

•Is able to harvest seeds for next year’s planting

•Is able to raise multiple generations of farm animals (cattle, sheep, horses)

•Has horses for local and distance travel

•Has enough ammo to last a generation (10,000+ rounds per weapon)

•Has spares of each weapon and lots of extra magazines

•Able to generate their own fuel (bio-diesel, alcohol)

•Likely has fully functional solar power bank with deep storage batteries

•Has natural on-site water sources for farm and home

•Has home-based business to generate income

•Is able to build new building and make any necessary repairs to existing buildings

•Is able to provide excess food for charity

•Has a secondary residency (such as mountain cabin) for full bug-out

•Is prepared for minor surgery and child birth at home

•Has stores of gold and silver for barter

•Is able to produce their own clothing (from raw wool or raw cotton with spinning wheel and small loom)

Being Prepared vs. Going Primitive

•One principle of life that we all can agree on is that tomorrow always comes and that bad things do happen. 

•If you don’t have a Plan B, you don’t have a plan.

Mother Nature does not adjust her risks and hazards to match your level of skill and preparation.

Remembering Your Future:

Preparing for a camping trip…The preparation is so painful, takes so much time, is so stressful that it makes everyone miserable, yet it is so vital to the success of the trip.  Make it part of the JOURNEY!

Envisioning the memories…Even in the miserable moments (mosquitoes, rain, equipment failure, lost) envision the bragging points. How will your retell your adventure?

Take a couple simple common occurrences for examples. 

Do you have a jack & spare tire in your car for the unexpected flat on the highway?  (Is that not a form of emergency preparedness?)  Do you know how to use the jack and other tools to change the tire?  Is the spare tire inflated? 

If you are properly prepared, you deal with the flat as an inconvenience and get back on the road.  You might even use those resources to help someone else in need that was less prepared. 

On the other hand, if you are not adequately prepared, and nobody else comes to your rescue, you are left with the most primitive mode of transportation: namely walking (what sort of shoes are you wearing right now?).

In February, 2015, a bitter snowstorm left over 160,000 residents of Georgia without power for several days.  How often does that happen in the Deep South?  Depending on your resources, you might have a generator to restore at least some lights and run the furnaces, perhaps even the refrigerator.  A kerosene heater or wood stove might heat one room where everyone can huddle together for warmth.  A solar generator could provide some lighting, and run a radio or a couple small appliances.  A camp stove would enable you to heat some soup.  If you are less prepared, you may only have a few candles, a flashlight with no spare batteries, and inadequate winter clothing to enable going outside for more than a few minutes before risking hypothermia.  Your day may begin and end with the rising and setting of the sun just like it did for the Pioneers.

Can you afford to be wrong in your emergency preparations & planning? Some people have the attitude that nothing serious is going to happen, at least not to them. If that is your belief, you had better be absolutely certain that you are right, because if you are wrong, you are in big trouble.  However, if you plan for the worst and you are wrong (ie. nothing happens, or only minor problems arise), No Problem! You have your gear and resources for another day or for a great camping trip!  Can you see the difference?  On one hand it’s OK to be wrong, while on the other hand there is only disaster and tragedy.

The Principle of the Parachute says:

You must have a parachute before you need a parachute
You must have your parachute with you when you need it
Your parachute must be in working condition when you need it
Your parachute should be made of the highest quality materials
You need to know how to use your parachute and have practiced using it before hand so that you can use it properly during an emergency
Your parachute needs to have been packed by a trustworthy parachute packer

In Sports...success or failure on the field of play is determined months before the actual game is played by how much dedication the athletes displayed during practice.

LDS Preparedness Manual (not produced by the LDS Church)

This book is WORTHLESS if you put it in your bookshelf with the intention of only reading it after an emergency strikes. It is NOT a Survival manual intended to be used after the fact.

This is a PREPAREDNESS manual that can only help you if you read it in advance and follow it’s suggestions to prepare and get ready for the emergency BEFORE IT HAPPENS!

Free Download: www.LDSAVOW.com

Life isn’t FAIR!

Plan Accordingly.

Remember the Seven Preparedness Risk Priorities?  If not, a quick review…

1. Violence
2. Sickness/Injury
3. Lack of, or Poor, Communication
4. Lack of, or Poor, Organization
5. Dehydration
6. Hyper/Hypothermia (shelter)
7. Starvation

Failure to properly mitigate these threats/risks in the proper order will result in failure. And failure will not be pleasant, usually with fatal or near-fatal results.

Why in that particular order? The order is based on the “fatality factor.”  What can kill you, or your family, the quickest?

You mitigate those threats/risks by having the ability to:

1. Defend yourself, family and community.
2. Provide medical care.
3. Use non-standard communications.
4. Use ICS (Incident Command System)
5. Produce, filter and purify water.
6. Provide basic shelter.
7. Provide initial food supply and grow more.

SS#1 Why Should We Prepare?

This are notes from Sunday School Lesson #1 entitled "Why Should We Prepare?"

Part 2 of that question is "What Are We Preparing For?"

“Life happens: Bad events will happen to you & your family.  How you prepare for them will determine whether they are an adventure or a disaster.” – Jim Phillips

Life's unexpected events can be grouped into the following categories:

Emergencies

·         House Fire

·         Injury

·         Flu

·         Vehicle Accident

·         Heart Attack

·         Job Loss/Retirement

·         Utility Outage

·         Death

Disasters

·         Earthquake

·         Wildfire

·         Tornado

·         Hurricane

·         HazMat

·         Flood

·         Epidemic

Grid-Down (or any event that results in a breakdown of our normal society structure)

·         Pandemic

·         Financial or Stock Market Collapse

•                 War or EMP Attack
•                  Martial Law (ultimate Police State)

In most cases, the more severe the event is, the more warning or longer the signs are in developing.  Emergencies can happen without warning, such as heart attacks, house fires, flooded basements, etc.  Most natural disasters typically have warnings that something bad is headed our way, at least hours and sometimes several days in advance.  Dutchsinse has even been able to predict earthquakes with surprising accuracy.  Wars, economic collapses and disease outbreaks are often in the news for weeks, months or even years before reaching us on a personal level.

For a more complete explanation of the above concepts, see "Proper Preparedness Principles" by A.H. Trimble.  https://ahtrimble.com/2015/09/26/proper-preparedness-principles/

As to what are we truly preparing for, we look forward to the 2nd coming of our Lord & Savior, Jesus Christ.  We want to be prepared spiritually to live in His presence.  However, there are many disturbing and even catastrophic events that have been foretold (for hundreds and even thousands of years) that we need to be prepared temporally (and emotionally) to endure so that we can even be present to enjoy the wonder of His coming.

Scriptural Basis for Preparedness:
These preparations should not be cause to fear and should not be done in haste.  Here are just a few scriptures for consideration, reminding us how to prepare, including taking the Holy Spirit as our guide rather than waiting for a specific warning from the living Prophet.

D&C 38:30 I tell you these things because of your prayers; wherefore, treasure up wisdom in your bosoms, lest the wickedness of men reveal these things unto you by their wickedness, in a manner which shall speak in your ears with a voice louder than that which shall shake the earth; but if ye are prepared ye shall not fear.

Doctrine and Covenants 58:26  For behold, it is not meet that I should command in all things; for he that is compelled in all things, the same is a slothful and not a wise servant; wherefore he receiveth no reward.

D&C 29: 32 First spiritual, secondly temporal, which is the beginning of my work; and again, first temporal, and secondly spiritual, which is the last of my work—

 33 Speaking unto you that you may naturally understand; but unto myself my works have no end, neither beginning; but it is given unto you that ye may understand, because ye have asked it of me and are agreed.

 34 Wherefore, verily I say unto you that all things unto me are spiritual, and not at any time have I given unto you a law which was temporal; neither any man, nor the children of men; neither Adam, your father, whom I created.

 35 Behold, I gave unto him that he should be an agent unto himself; and I gave unto him commandment, but no temporal commandment gave I unto him, for my commandments are spiritual; they are not natural nor temporal, neither carnal nor sensual.

Doctrine and Covenants 45:57 For they that are wise and have received the truth, and have taken the Holy Spirit for their guide, and have not been deceived—verily I say unto you, they shall not be hewn down and cast into the fire, but shall abide the day.

Prophetic Quotes:

Elder James E. Talmage

‘’In mercy the Lord warns and forewarns. He sees the coming storm, knows the forces operating to produce it, and calls aloud through His prophets, advises, counsels, exhorts, even commands—that we prepare for what is about to befall and take shelter while yet there is time. But we go our several ways, feasting and making merry, consoling conscience with the easy fancy of ‘time enough’ and in idle hope that the tempest will pass us by, or that, when it begins to gather thick and black about us we can turn back and find shelter.’’ -- James E Talmage, The Parables of James E. Talmage, p. 50

Elder M. Russell Ballard from “Let Our Voices Be Heard”  LDS.org

https://www.lds.org/ensign/2003/11/let-our-voices-be-heard?lang=eng

Within this context of the preeminent importance of families and the threats families face today, it is not surprising that the First Presidency and the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles used strong words in the proclamation to the world on families: "We warn that individuals … who fail to fulfill family responsibilities will one day stand accountable before God. Further, we warn that the disintegration of the family will bring upon individuals, communities, and nations the calamities foretold by ancient and modern prophets."  (Note that the Proclamation on the Family was given 20 years before the current attacks on family structure became mainstream events.)

Pres. Spencer W. Kimball

"I hope, and this is my brief message to you today, that no one ever reads one word about that terrible flood and the sadness that it has brought-the loss of life, the loss of livestock, the destruction of farms, the suffering that has come to those good people--I say again, I hope no one here will ever read another word about that disaster without saying quietly to himself, 'No moment will ever pass when I will not be prepared as the Brethren tell me to do.' One year's supply of commodities, well cared for, well selected, is a minimum. It's the minimum [President Kimball hit the podium for emphasis], and every family, if they have only been married a day or a week, should begin to have their year's supply.
Now that's basic, and we mean it! [He hit the podium again.]
There should be no family under the sound of my voice who isn't already prepared for whatever eventuality may come. We can't anticipate it, of course. We don't know where another dam is going out, or where a river is going to flood, or whether an earthquake is going to come, or what's going to happen. We just are always prepared because the Lord said, 'If ye are prepared ye shall not fear' (D&C 38:30). And the only way to have peace and security is to be prepared.
"May the Lord bless us that not one family of us will go from this room without a determination from this moment forward that there will never be a time when we will not be prepared to meet the hazards that could come." (Pure Religion p. 266-267; June 10, 1976 5 days after Teton Dam Broke)

Pure Religion (1995)  The Story of Church Welfare Since 1930  by Glen L. Rudd (Author)

The following quote comes from an 8-minute YouTube video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Lwt7rrC7Ew&feature=youtu.be

"I have read and heard from many members that they believe the prophet will give out a general warning before the prophesied calamities will come upon us. Personally, I never did believe this would be the case, but I never could find much of anything to support my feeling until I read from Pres. Kimball's book, “Faith Precedes the Miracle.” In it he put it all together for me. It came down to just one sentence.

Quote: With no warning, no last-minute preparation is possible.

There will be no general warning to the membership that things will be shortly falling apart. We have been commanded to follow the signs of the times and that is all the warning we need or will be given, but the membership is asleep. Like the Ten Virgins, we have been commanded to watch and prepare, but like the people in the days of Noah, many members have become lulled into a sense of security. This "lack of warning" is designed to weed out the tares; the “All is well in Zion," crowd."

Then I read on and the explanation became completely clear.

Quote:

I believe that the Ten Virgins represent the people of the Church of Jesus Christ and not the rank and file of the world. All of the virgins, wise and foolish, had accepted the invitation to the wedding supper; they had knowledge of the program and had been warned of the important day to come. They were not the gentiles or the heathens or the pagans, nor were they necessarily corrupt and reprobate, but they were knowing people who were foolishly unprepared for the vital happenings that were to affect their eternal lives.

They had the saving, exalting gospel, but it had not been made the center of their lives. They knew the way but gave only a small measure of loyalty and devotion. I ask you: What value is a car without an engine, a cup without water, a table without food, a lamp without oil?

Rushing for their lamps to light their way through the blackness, half of them found them empty. They had cheated themselves. They were fools, these five unprepared virgins. Apparently, the bridegroom had tarried for reasons that were sufficient and good. Time had passed, and he had not come. They had heard of his coming for so long, so many times, that the statement seemingly became meaningless to them. Would he ever come? So long had it been since they began expecting him that they were rationalizing that he would never appear. Perhaps it was a myth.

Hundreds of thousands of us today are in this position. Confidence has been dulled and patience worn thin. It is so hard to wait and be prepared always. But we cannot allow ourselves to slumber. The Lord has given us this parable as a special warning.

At midnight, the vital cry was made, "Behold, the bridegroom cometh; go ye out to meet him." Then all the virgins arose and trimmed their lamps.

Even the foolish ones trimmed their lamps, but their oil was used up and they had none to refill the lamps. They hastened to make up for lost time. Now, too late, they were becoming conscious of the tragedy of unpreparedness. They had been taught. They had been warned all their lives.

At midnight! Precisely at the darkest hour, when least expected, the bridegroom came. When the world is full of tribulation and help is needed, but it seems the time must be past and hope is vain, then Christ will come.

The midnights of life are the times when heaven comes to offer its joy for man's weariness. But when the cry sounds, there is no time for preparation. The lamps then make patterns of joy on the hillside, and the procession moves on toward the house of banqueting, and those without lamps or oil are left in darkness. When they have belatedly sought to fulfill the requirements and finally reach the hall, the door is shut. In the daytime, wise and unwise seemed alike; midnight is the time of test and judgment—and of offered gladness.

The foolish virgins were not averse to buying oil. They knew they should have oil. They merely procrastinated, not knowing when the bridegroom would come. --(Faith Precedes the Miracle, Ch. 23, "Preparedness: the Ten Virgins")

All emergencies or disasters have the following elements of risk or danger in one form or another.  They must be dealt with in the order of severity as listed.

7 Survival Priorities

1.       Threat of violence

2.       Threat of injury or sickness

3.       Lack of or poor communications

4.       Lack of or poor organization

5.       Dehydration

6.       Hyper/Hypothermia

7.       Starvation

4 Purposes or Types of Gathering (Ponder as there was not enough time to discuss)

            1.       Spiritual gathering to Christ & gospel ordinances

            2.       Physical gathering to the Promised Land

            3.       Physical gathering for Safety

            4.       Physical gathering for Perfection 

  Historical Context

      Consider Joseph's experience in Egypt.  He was the son of the living prophet of God, yet God did not reveal to Jacob that his favorite son was still alive, let alone the fact that he was a prisoner in Egypt.  There is no record that God revealed to Jacob the coming famine that sent his remaining sons to Egypt to beg / purchase grain.  The dream about the coming famine was given to the pagan Pharoah.  Not a faithful believer of the true & living God, probably not even a nice man.  We know how Joseph was summoned from the prisons to interpret the dream by the gift of God, and then elevated to high position to institute a national food storage program that saved not only the nation of Egypt during the 7-year famine, but also the whole family of Jacob (the House of Israel).  God does not always give warnings to just the prophet, if at all.  Sometimes, we learn about events and opportunities to prepare through ordinary and even unlikely people.  It is up to us to follow the Holy Spirit, compare that knowledge with the scriptures and revealed words of the modern prophets and then consult with our Heavenly Father through prayer to seek guidance for our families.

      Family History Story

From the journal of Johanna Catherine Nielson, daughter of Levi Christensen and Lisa Maria Nielson, ancestor of Delia Madsen.

1859 Moroni is a pleasantly located city in north central Sanpete county. This settlement was begun in the spring of 1859. The colonists were strong, determined men and women. Their first homes were dugouts on the river banks. Here they planted gardens and grains, but Indians became troublesome, stealing their few cattle and burning their crops. The pioneers were not to be baffled. They organized for protection against the natives. Other families were soon added to their strength and the settlement grew regardless of Indians and troublesome conditions.

In the year 1860 father (a shoemaker by profession) joined the move from Springville to Moroni taking his family and what worldly goods he had accumulated. We were all happy to move, for the south held great promise for a home and lands. Numbers of the saints being sent to this colony were people from our own native land. One settlement had been named little Denmark and this name had a familiar ring.

In Moroni father built a small home which, however, had to wait for windows and doors as all supplies at this time were coming to Utah in wagons drawn by oxen. We didn’t have much to decorate our new home with. Father often said when he came to Moroni his possessions consisted mostly of a wife, two sons, a tiny daughter and an old oxen. Of course we never let him forget his chest of tools.

Father and mother were in their fortieth year. The long trip from Denmark to Salt Lake City had taken their strength. Father still sustained a strong cough which weakened his endurance but they were very young in spirit and courage and strong in faith.

The crops had been very good in the southern colonies and there was food even though the Indians stole large numbers of cattle and burned fields of grain. In 1864, flour from these colonies was sold in Salt Lake City for $21.25 per 100 pounds. (Side note: yesterday, December 31, 2016, Grant and I bought flour from Sam’s Club for under $10 for 50 pounds! ) Father raised a nice garden, we had sheep and a cow. Some of our land was in grain and some in potatoes. We were doing nicely and were happy planning together.

One morning father seemed particularly disturbed. Mother inquired as to the cause fearing for his health. He replied he was not ill, but concerned over an impressive dream, and then revealed it. He said during the night a strange messenger came to him and said “Levi you are to build three strong boxes, each one large enough to hold flour to sustain your family for one year and store them safely away”. Mother questioned, “but why?”. Our gardens and grains are abundant, everyone has enough to eat and they are sending thousands of pounds of flour to the Missouri over to the poor emigrants. That made father wonder too.

The next morning when he told us he had received the same command from the same messenger he was fully convinced and began at once to gather materials, which were difficult to find. The boxes were finished and at harvest time filled with flour and even though it had been quite a problem, father reminded us of the works of Nephi in the Book of Mormon, “I, Nephi, will go and do the things which the Lord had commanded, for I know that the Lord giveth no commandment unto the children of men save he shall prepare a way for them that they may accomplish the thing which he commandeth them.” The boxes were stored safely away.

Each day our home and surroundings were becoming more dear. My brother Christian worried mother quite often. He had formed a friendship with the Indians and would visit them at their camps and hunting grounds being gone for days. When he returned he would tell wonderful stories of their way of life and was so pleased to bring us fresh fish and game they had taught him to catch. But every day there were new stories of whole families being killed by these Indians. They would surround a home, set it on fire, drive off all the cattle and kill the men, women and children. Of course some of them were friendly, but there was a dark wave of resentment among many of the chiefs. They felt their lands and hunting grounds were being taken away from them. Their fishing streams were being disturbed. Homes and grain fields were crowding them out. This was their home. It had been given them by the great spirit.

The years 65, 66, and 67 brought great trials besides the Indian troubles and the Black Hawk war. Grasshoppers came in great numbers and destroyed most of the crops in Sanpete county. Many of the pioneers were glad to find rabbits and roots to eat. It was at this time father understood the messenger of his dreams and he, with his family, gave thanks to God for his blessing to us. His flour was divided with strangers, neighbors, Indians, each box serving plenteous for the year intended.

Questions you might ask:

Why was Levi the only one to receive this warning? ...or was he the only one who obeyed?

Why didn't this warning come from the General Authorities of the Church, or even the Prophet himself, through the local stake leaders to prepare for a coming famine?

What are the consequences (good and bad) that come from acting (or not acting) on personal promptings from the Spirit?