SS Lesson #2: Pre-Event Planning & Assessment

Will you just Survive or Thrive?

Planning will determine whether an unexpected event becomes an Adventure or a Disaster.

HOPE Is NOT A PLAN

“Then whosoever heareth the sound of the trumpet, and taketh not warning; if the sword come, and take him away, his blood shall be upon his own head. He heard the sound of the trumpet, and took not warning; his blood shall be upon him. But he that taketh warning shall deliver his soul. But if the watchman see the sword come, and blow not the trumpet, and the people be not warned; if the sword come, and take [any] person from among them, he is taken away in his iniquity; but his blood will I require at the watchman’s hand.” Ezekiel 33:4

“Too often we bask in our comfortable complacency and rationalize that the ravages of war, economic disaster, famine, and earthquake cannot happen here. Those who believe this are either not acquainted with the revelations of the Lord, or they do not believe them. Those who smugly think these calamities will not happen, that they somehow will be set aside because of the righteousness of the Saints, are deceived and will rue  the day they harbored such a delusion. The Lord has  warned and forewarned us against a day of great tribulation and given us counsel, through His servants, on how we can be prepared for these difficult times. Have we heeded His counsel?”   -- Pres. Ezra T. Benson

5 Levels of Preparation

Level 0: Every emergency is a disaster

•Less than two weeks of food in the house

•No water purification system

•No bug-out bag / 72 hr. kit

•No defensive weapons

•No way to produce their own food

•No physical gold or silver

•No tangible assets to barter

Failure to Plan is Planning to Fail

Level 1: Can Survive Two Weeks of Minor Emergency 

(such as ice storm)

•Have sufficient food and water for two weeks of emergency

•Able to heat their home for two weeks without relying on the power grid by use of kerosene heater or fireplace

•Able to cook their meals for two weeks without relying on the power grid

•Has a first aid kit

•Likely has no defensive weapons

•Must leave their home after two weeks due to lack of preparation

Level 2: Can Survive One Month of an Emergency

(such as major hurricane)

•Likely has a portable power generator and sufficient fuel for one month of operation

•Has handguns or shotgun and the skills to defend their home

•Has a month’s work of canned goods to eat

•Has sufficient prescription medicines for 30 days

•Has enough batteries for power a portable radio for 30 days

Level 3: Can Survive Three Months of an Emergency

(such as martial law or impacting earthquake)

•Has a deep-short term pantry

•Likely has a water purification system

•Likely has defensive weapon for each family member

•Likely has some type of neighborhood safety watch or

•24 hour security watch rotation at the home

•Has stocked wood to burn in fireplace and/or iron stove

•Has communication gear to keep track of local and world events

•Has means to recharge batteries without relying on power grid

•Has three months of prescription medicines

Level 4: Can Survive One Year of an Emergency

(such as currency devaluation, economic depression)

•Has a deep short- and long-term food pantry

•Likely has their own garden to produce food

•Likely has small-sized farm animals to produce protein (chickens, goats, rabbits)

•Has a deep supply of ammo (2000+ rounds per weapon)

•Has a spare weapon in event of damage

•Has means to produce herbal medicines to replace prescriptions

•Has a long-term store of antibiotics

•Likely has dog for security watch

•Has full 24 hour rotation of security watch on the home (requires 6 adults)

•Has secondary off-site storage of food, weapons, and ammo

•Is ready to bug-out with full hiking and camping gear, if security situation degrades

•Is able to educate their children at home

Level 5: Can Survive Indefinitely from their Home during a 

Multi-year National Emergency Situation

•Has a fully functioning large garden or small farm for food production

•Is able to can and store the results of food harvest for the coming year

•Is able to harvest seeds for next year’s planting

•Is able to raise multiple generations of farm animals (cattle, sheep, horses)

•Has horses for local and distance travel

•Has enough ammo to last a generation (10,000+ rounds per weapon)

•Has spares of each weapon and lots of extra magazines

•Able to generate their own fuel (bio-diesel, alcohol)

•Likely has fully functional solar power bank with deep storage batteries

•Has natural on-site water sources for farm and home

•Has home-based business to generate income

•Is able to build new building and make any necessary repairs to existing buildings

•Is able to provide excess food for charity

•Has a secondary residency (such as mountain cabin) for full bug-out

•Is prepared for minor surgery and child birth at home

•Has stores of gold and silver for barter

•Is able to produce their own clothing (from raw wool or raw cotton with spinning wheel and small loom)

Being Prepared vs. Going Primitive

•One principle of life that we all can agree on is that tomorrow always comes and that bad things do happen. 

•If you don’t have a Plan B, you don’t have a plan.

Mother Nature does not adjust her risks and hazards to match your level of skill and preparation.

Remembering Your Future:

Preparing for a camping trip…The preparation is so painful, takes so much time, is so stressful that it makes everyone miserable, yet it is so vital to the success of the trip.  Make it part of the JOURNEY!

Envisioning the memories…Even in the miserable moments (mosquitoes, rain, equipment failure, lost) envision the bragging points. How will your retell your adventure?

Take a couple simple common occurrences for examples. 

Do you have a jack & spare tire in your car for the unexpected flat on the highway?  (Is that not a form of emergency preparedness?)  Do you know how to use the jack and other tools to change the tire?  Is the spare tire inflated? 

If you are properly prepared, you deal with the flat as an inconvenience and get back on the road.  You might even use those resources to help someone else in need that was less prepared. 

On the other hand, if you are not adequately prepared, and nobody else comes to your rescue, you are left with the most primitive mode of transportation: namely walking (what sort of shoes are you wearing right now?).

In February, 2015, a bitter snowstorm left over 160,000 residents of Georgia without power for several days.  How often does that happen in the Deep South?  Depending on your resources, you might have a generator to restore at least some lights and run the furnaces, perhaps even the refrigerator.  A kerosene heater or wood stove might heat one room where everyone can huddle together for warmth.  A solar generator could provide some lighting, and run a radio or a couple small appliances.  A camp stove would enable you to heat some soup.  If you are less prepared, you may only have a few candles, a flashlight with no spare batteries, and inadequate winter clothing to enable going outside for more than a few minutes before risking hypothermia.  Your day may begin and end with the rising and setting of the sun just like it did for the Pioneers.

Can you afford to be wrong in your emergency preparations & planning? Some people have the attitude that nothing serious is going to happen, at least not to them. If that is your belief, you had better be absolutely certain that you are right, because if you are wrong, you are in big trouble.  However, if you plan for the worst and you are wrong (ie. nothing happens, or only minor problems arise), No Problem! You have your gear and resources for another day or for a great camping trip!  Can you see the difference?  On one hand it’s OK to be wrong, while on the other hand there is only disaster and tragedy.

The Principle of the Parachute says:

You must have a parachute before you need a parachute
You must have your parachute with you when you need it
Your parachute must be in working condition when you need it
Your parachute should be made of the highest quality materials
You need to know how to use your parachute and have practiced using it before hand so that you can use it properly during an emergency
Your parachute needs to have been packed by a trustworthy parachute packer

In Sports...success or failure on the field of play is determined months before the actual game is played by how much dedication the athletes displayed during practice.

LDS Preparedness Manual (not produced by the LDS Church)

This book is WORTHLESS if you put it in your bookshelf with the intention of only reading it after an emergency strikes. It is NOT a Survival manual intended to be used after the fact.

This is a PREPAREDNESS manual that can only help you if you read it in advance and follow it’s suggestions to prepare and get ready for the emergency BEFORE IT HAPPENS!

Free Download: www.LDSAVOW.com

Life isn’t FAIR!

Plan Accordingly.

Remember the Seven Preparedness Risk Priorities?  If not, a quick review…

1. Violence
2. Sickness/Injury
3. Lack of, or Poor, Communication
4. Lack of, or Poor, Organization
5. Dehydration
6. Hyper/Hypothermia (shelter)
7. Starvation

Failure to properly mitigate these threats/risks in the proper order will result in failure. And failure will not be pleasant, usually with fatal or near-fatal results.

Why in that particular order? The order is based on the “fatality factor.”  What can kill you, or your family, the quickest?

You mitigate those threats/risks by having the ability to:

1. Defend yourself, family and community.
2. Provide medical care.
3. Use non-standard communications.
4. Use ICS (Incident Command System)
5. Produce, filter and purify water.
6. Provide basic shelter.
7. Provide initial food supply and grow more.