SS #5: Evacuate or Shelter in Place

How do you decide if you will Evacuate or Shelter in Place following an emergency?

Scriptures

D&C 45:57 For they that are wise and have received the truth, and have taken the Holy Spirit for their guide, and have not been deceived—verily I say unto you, they shall not be hewn down and cast into the fire, but shall abide the day.

Jacob 3:4 And the time speedily cometh, that except ye repent they shall possess the land of your inheritance, and the Lord God will lead away the righteous out from among you. 

D&C 112:10 Be thou humble; and the Lord thy God shall lead thee by the hand, and give thee answer to thy prayers.

Questions to ask yourself:

• Short-term or Long-term evacuation?
• Is Evacuation Forced or Optional?
• Emergency vs. Disaster vs. Grid-down Event? Risk varies by the hazard
• What are the risks of staying home?
• What are the risks of evacuating?
• What are the trigger events that would signal a time to evacuate?
• Do I wait until everyone else is evacuating?

Consider your answers in light of the 7 Risk Priorities:

1. Violence
2. Sickness/Injury
3. Lack of, or Poor, Communication
4. Lack of, or Poor, Organization
5. Dehydration
6. Hyper/Hypothermia (shelter)
7. Starvation

Also remember how to mitigate each of these risks, whether your stay home or evacuate:

1. Defend yourself, family and community.
2. Provide medical care.
3. Use non-standard communications.
4. Use ICS (Incident Command System)
5. Produce, filter and purify water.
6. Provide basic shelter.
7. Provide initial food supply and grow more.

"Shelter-in-place" means selecting an interior room or rooms within your facility, or ones with no or few windows, and taking refuge there. In many cases, local authorities will issue advice to shelter-in-place via TV or radio.

Sheltering At Home

Reasons you might choose to shelter in place:

• Familiarity of home & neighborhood
• Emotional stability
• Comforts of home, everything within reach
• Protect home from looters
• Local police protection?
• No means of evacuating
• Nowhere to go
• Better than the Superdome!
• Pets & farm animals
• Job or other responsibilities prevent you from leaving
• Roadblocks
• Disaster could be in winter
• Protection from severe weather

Risks / Hazards of sheltering in place:

• Home may not be stable
• Local resources may be limited or overwhelmed
• Maurading gangs
• May be difficult to defend your home 24/7
• Opportunity to evacuate may be limited

Evacuation

Risks / Hazards of evacuating:

• Safety in numbers IF joining with like-minded people
• Safer if home is unstable
• Avoid marauding gangs?
• Lack of local resources
• Invitation from the prophet?
• Seek family

Risks / Hazards of Evacuation:

• Exposed to weather extremes
• Hotels are costly, may be over-booked
• Cannot take all your necessities
• Home left unsecured
• Roads may be gridlocked
• Possible fuel shortages
• May lose your job
• Some family may refuse or be unable to join you
• Emotional insecurity of the unknown
• Highly emotional & desperate people all jammed together on the highways and at gas stations
• Could get stuck in crowded or unsanitary shelter
• May be caught by marauding gangs

You may be FORCED to evacuate in some circumstances, such as:

• Severe event: home may not be livable, either temporarily or permanently
• Neighborhood at risk: fire, flood, toxins, radiation, foreign invasion
• Pandemic: Ebola, Bioterrorism
• Sewage backup

Consider the recent Oroville, CA dam evacuation crisis.

Evacuating residents stuck in gridlock traffic.

Hundreds of cars in wall-to-wall traffic can be seen on Highway 99 as people stream out of Oroville away from the dam.

Comments from local residents:

"We had less than 1 hour’s notice to evacuate!"

"We had nothing ready!"

"We vow to ALWAYS be packed and ready to evacuate from now on!"

Recent KSL Headlines:

With More Rain Likely, Logan City Working to Stay Ahead of Sewage Problems Feb. 14, 2017

Raw Sewage Floods Farr West Neighborhood Feb. 9, 2017

14 Homes Evacuated After Mudslide in Woodland Hills Aug. 14, 2015

Consider organizing, copying, consolidating Irreplaceable Documents & other items, such as:

• Patriarchal Blessings
• Family Photos in Digital Form—CD/DVD, Thumb drive, External Hard Drive
• Scrapbooks or Photos to Grab if Time Allows
• Back-up of Computer Files
• Insurance Contacts
• Home Deeds, Mortgage Info.

Remember the concept of layers on how it might affect your evacuation planning.  For example, will you be evacuating with just the clothes on your back or will you have time to grab a tent?  Do you have a camper trailer, or perhaps even a cabin to which you will evacuate for shelter?

Is your plan written down?  Does EVERYONE know the plan? Do you have a plan for your workplace?

• Where will we meet?  When?
• How long will we wait for everyone to show up?
• Who will pick the kids up from school?
• What route will we take out of town?  Is there an alternate route?

If you don’t have a Plan B, 

you don’t have a plan.

Consider compiling a Grab-n-Go Binder

• Organize a Binder with Lists of items that need to be gathered from Each Room if evacuating.
• Make a list of things for Brief Evacuations and a more expanded list for Long-term Bug Out.
• Bold or highlight items that you grab only for a brief evacuation (<2 wks).  Grab everything if you don't know when (or if) you will return.

Sample: Kitchen

• Can Opener
• Cutting boards
• Garbage Bags
• All sharp knives
• Towels/hotpads
• 2 WMF Pressure cookers
• Cheese slicers
• Silver Trashcan
• All Silicon stuff (Muffin cups, Bread pan etc.)
• Metal Bread pans
• All Cast-iron pans and Skillet
• Metal mixing bowls
• Cheese grater
• Popcorn/kettlecorn maker
• Ktech Bread mixer and ALL Parts and Blender
• Stock pot and stainless steel pans
• Pitcher with Green lid
• Rolling pin
• All Potato Peelers

Sample: Under Kitchen Sink

• All plastic Gloves
• Dish Soap
• Disinfecting wipes
• Handsoap
• Steel scrubbers
• Scotchbright scrubbers
• Bottle Brush
• Scrubrushes

Sample: Pantry

• All buckets of food
• All candles / matches / lighters
• Paper goods
• All Medicines
• Fire extinguisher
• Popcorn/kettle maker
• Big Metal and Glass mixing bowls
• All Spices and rack on door
• Jugs of oils, vinegar and syrups
• Aprons
• Cookbooks
• Empty Ice-cream buckets
• Dog Toothbrushes

 More thoughts on Sheltering in Place:

Don't try to heat the whole house in winter with limited resources.  Heat just the room(s) you use the most, such as the kitchen or family room.  Seal them off with blankets, doors, plastic to trap the heat.  Then sleep in the cooler rooms, or even all together.  Buddy Heaters (Mr. Buddy, Big Buddy, etc.) are approved for indoor use.  Beware of many heaters that create deadly carbon monoxide.  Keep fresh batteries in your CO2 monitors

• Do You Know Your Block Captain?
• Do you have your Emergency Window Placard handy?
• Have you check on the neighbors to each side and across the street?
• Are you a trained CERT member?
• Don’t Just Sit Around – Do Something!
• Volunteer with the Red Cross
• Check on your neighbors
• Participate in CERT
• Teach others what you have learned to conserve (heat, fuel, electricity, food)

Would the Prophet every ask us to leave our homes?  What is the scriptural / historical pattern?

Consider the following examples (not in any particular order):

1.       Brother of Jared leaves Babel

2.       Lehi & family leave Jerusalem

3.       Ishmael and his family join Lehi in fleeing Jerusalem.

4.       Mulek leaves Jerusalem

5.       Alma & followers flee from wicked King Noah

6.       Alma's fleeing from Lamanite bondage (Mosiah 24)

7.       Puritans and Pilgrims flee England to America

8.       Moses & the children of Israel flee Egypt

9.       Enoch & his city flee before the flood (Moses 7:27)

10.   Noah flees the world on an ark.

11.   Mary and Joseph flee to Egypt

12.   Saints fleeing from Jerusalem and Titus in 70 A.D.

13.   Limhi's people fleeing  from the Lamanites (Mosiah 22:6-13)

14.   Nephi fleeing from Laman and Lemuel

15.   Ammon and his Anti-Nephi-Lehi's fleeing the Lamanites (Alma 27)

16.   Mosiah flees the Land of Nephi into the wilderness (Omni 1:12)

17.   Joseph of Aramathea in Jewish legend driven from Jerusalem in a boat with Mary, Martha, Lazarus, Mary Magdalene and others.

18.   The ten tribes fleeing from bondage into the north countries.

19.   Abraham flees from Ur of the Chaldees.  (Heb. 11:8, Abr. 2:3)

20.   Another Jewish legend of Jeremiah fleeing to Egypt and then to England and Ireland before destruction of Jerusalem.

21.   Lot flees Sodom and Gomorrah

22.   The Nephits flee from their homes and gather together to fight the Lamanites and Gadiantons, pooling all their supplies for 7 years.

23.   Amulek flees from Ammoniah (Alma 15:16)

24.   Zoramites cast out and flee to Jershon (Alma 35)

25.   The people of Ammon vacate Jershon so the Nephites can battle the Lamanites. (Alma 35:13)

26.   Jacob flees to Egypt to get food.

27.   The saints flee Kirtland to go to Missouri

28.   The saints flee Missouri to go to Nauvoo

29.   The saints flee Nauvoo for Salt Lake

30.   Adam and Eve have to leave the Garden of Eden to start a new life.

31.   Hyrum Smith received a revelation saying his life was in danger and to move his family from Palmyra to Colesville, N.Y. He packed that night and left the next morning. "Life of Joseph Smith by His Mother"

32.   Father Smith's life was in jeopardy. He was warned to flee but didn't leave soon enough and was thrown into prison where he spent a month. After his release he immediately moved his family to Waterloo, NY and most of the Smith family would never see Palmyra again. "Life of Joseph Smith by his Mother"

33.   Joseph and Emma flee Palmyra with the gold plates to live in Harmony, Pa.

34.   Joseph flees from Harmony

35.   The saints fleeing U.S. marshals into Mexico to save their families.

36.   Moroni flees the rest of his life from the Lamanites.

37.   People of Limhi deliver themselves from bondage by departing into the wilderness with tents, flocks, families. They couldn't do it by the sword--were out-numbered. Went out the back pass. Mosiah 22:2 

38.   Zoramites find out which people believe Alma's and Amulek's words and cast them out of the land. They go to Jershon Alma 35:6-9. Verse 14 "Those who repented were driven out of the land."

39.   Peter, James, and John, "And straight way they forsook their nets and followed Him." Mark 1:16-18

40.   Jesus fleeing Nazareth when they tried to kill him, never to return to his home town.

41.   Omer is warned to flee because Akish and his secret band are going to kill him so Akish can marry Jared's daughter and give Jared the kingdom. Ether 9:3

42.   The people in the city Moroni fled to the city Nephihah. Alma 51:24

43.   Jacob fled when Simeon his son killed those who had abducted his daughter Dinah.

44.   Enos, the son of Seth, the son of Adam, fled with "the residue of the people of God" and "came out from the land, which was called Shulon, and dwelt in a of promise..."  Moses 6:17.

45.   Saints in Europe coming to Utah in mass exodus.

46.   Many of our grandparents or ancestors individually answered the call of Joseph Smith to immigrate to America and join with the saints in Utah. Left their homelands and relatives.

47.   No sooner had the Pioneers settled themselves with good herds and good homes than they were called to leave it all and settle St. George, the San Juan, Arizona and other places in-between, and often more than once.

President Uchtdorf’s Parable of Great-Aunt Rose: A message on Emergency Preparedness?

Read Elder Uchtdorf's talk here as a basis for this blog.

At General Women’s Conference, President Uchtdorf shared a sweet story, reminding us that the Savior taught in parables and that President Monson rarely tells a story that isn’t also a parable. Parables have a straight forward message that is plain to see. However, they also have a deeper meaning, sometimes more than one, that need to be searched out, pondered and prayed about to understand completely. He invites us thus: “I invite you to listen with the Spirit. The Holy Ghost will help you to find the message for you in this parable.”

As we have pondered and discussed this with others, we have come to the conclusion that this parable has many last-days implications. (I’ve tried to consolidate 11 pages of notes & comments for this newsletter, but it just isn’t going to happen.) As you read or re-read this parable on the Church website, consider what message it may bear if we are indeed approaching the days of tribulation that prophets have foretold for thousands of years. Who are represented by little 11-year old Eva, her Great-Aunt Rose, her father & mother, and the creepy cat? Why did Eva have to leave her comfortable home while her mother has much needed surgery? Were there not closer relatives? What is represented by Aunt Rose’s old home, the plastic bins of beads, bows & buttons, or the fact that Aunt Rose had difficulty doing simple things, even getting around? Why did Eva resent and dislike everything about her great-aunt’s home that was so remote? What is significant about Eva’s age? Is it that she is about to transition from Primary into being a Young Woman, leaving childish wants behind and maturing to face more difficult challenges? Does the Hebrew meaning of the number 11 as a representation of chaos mean anything?

I am certain that while we can accept that we can all learn to make the best of a difficult situation and love others that we barely even know; learn to appreciate things that we previously detested; and develop deeper faith, hope & charity that will light a light of kindness & happiness that will be seen by all who know us, I am sure there is a deeper meaning in this parable that bears considering. Can you see any similarities to Lehi, Nephi, Limhi, Alma, the Brother of Jared, Lot, and the early Mormon Pioneers? What is the significance of the scriptures Pres. Uchtdorf chose to quote? Does any of this have any implications on your family’s emergency preparedness efforts? What about your spiritual preparedness? Review Pres. Monson’s Ensign message from last September entitled “Are We Prepared” and see if there is any correlation with this parable.

With all our preparations for unexpected events in our lives, remember this advice from the parable: “With such a glorious future, why get swallowed up in past or present things that don’t go quite the way we planned?” … “I know a poem that says, ‘Forever—is composed of Nows.’ I didn’t want my forever to be composed of dark and fearful ‘Nows.’ And I didn’t want to live in the gloom of a bunker, gritting my teeth, closing my eyes, and resentfully enduring to the bitter end. Faith gave me the hope I needed to live joyfully now!”

Even in the parable, Eva eventually grew up, married, raised children, and lived a long and wonderful life.

Let us know your thoughts & insights on this parable.  Perhaps we'll post more about it later.

Grant & Delia Madsen

Extreme Events of 2013

Here is a long (>2 hr) compilation of extreme events just from 2013.  Do you need to prepare?

Weird Events of 2013

Observations of Super-Typhoon Hayian

The Philipine islands experience more than their share of tragedies at the hand of Mother Nature.  As I have watched the events of Typhoon Haiyan unfold this past week, I have made a few observations of human nature that are common in everyday life, but that manifest in the extreme during times of crisis.

We've all watched the news stories of the wide spread destruction of entire communities and the deplorable conditions that the Philipinos have been thrown into.  Almost no shelter, no fresh water, belongings swept away by wind and flood, loved ones pulled from clinging grasps to perish or go missing, no communications, looters ransacking the few remaining stores & warehouses and dead bodies bloating in the sun.

My observations:

1. The majority of the people just huddle en masse, waiting for help to come, overwhelmed by the enormity of the destruction of all they cherish and have worked for.  But waiting for help from whom?  The government? The military? World humanitarian organizations?

2. As the news agencies are highlighting the plight of these victims, I see a few people in the background working silently: carrying away the dead, searching for survivors and usable goods, building temporary shelters.  But the workers are few compared to the swarms of the helpless.

3. As the military and relief agencies arrive to help, I see angry people shaking their fists at their would-be rescuers, demanding immediate aid rather than displaying gratitude that help is coming.

4. Not seen, and only barely mentioned in the news stories, are the doctors & nurses providing what care and medicine they can with limited supplies, no electricity, and no running water.

5. Even if the people had had emergency supplies, most would have either been swept away by wind or water, buried amid the rubble, destroyed or ruined, or taken away by looters.

6. I also see fences, armed guards (some guarding the stores that have already been looted), people being herded and shepherded without much choice (even if for their own good).

7. As already mentioned, the Philipines are hit with several typhoons each year, and are along a very active fault line, so they also experience numerous earthquakes.  They've learned to endure.  So, when officials drove through towns, calling out on bullhorns for people to evacuate two days before Typhoon Haiyan made landfall, many long time residents probably felt like "this is just going to be another storm like all the rest.  We'll just hunker down and pick up the pieces after it passes, just like we always have.  Life will go on like usual."  So, relying on their resilience and determination to be tough, it's not surprising that so few left.

8. On the other hand, seeing as many of those residents are poor, having no form of transportation aside from bicycles and motorcycles, evacuation may not have been a very feasible option for most.

9. I was so grateful to hear that all the LDS missionaries had been accounted for and were safe. Their Mission President had provided them each with a 72-hour kit and relocated them to safer areas. I cannot be sure, but I didn't hear any general call from Church leaders for members to flee for safety.  It may have occurred as a quiet suggestion on Sunday to "be wise and do what you feel is best for your family."  Are we not all "agents unto ourselves" for most of our decisions in times of crisis?  Now, some 200 LDS chapels in the area are serving as "places of refuge" for survivors.

Lessons for me, in my life, here in Mapleton:

• I can't expect the government, the military, the Church or anyone else to come to my aid in the event of a disaster. ...at least not immediately, and probably not with enough supplies to go around.

• For the few people who see a need and jump in to find solutions to problems, there will be many more (hordes) that will sit as helpless victims waiting for someone else to provide for them.

• No matter how well I prepare for my family's needs, I will find myself surrounded by many who are unprepared, either temporally or mentally, or both.

• I can't prepare for everything. Life is too unpredictable.  Mother Nature is too powerful. There will always be something that I couldn't foresee.  All I can do is consider the most probable scenarios and prepare accordingly, step by step, here a little and there a little.

• Even with excellent preparations, all could be lost.  Eathquakes bury and smash.  Fires burn.  Floods ruin and carry away.  Thieves steal.  I need to find ways to safeguard the emergency supplies so they aren't destroyed, buried under rubble, looted or otherwise ruined.

• In every situation, there will be a few good people doing whatever they can to put their talents and limited resources to use in helping others.

• I don't want to be herded like sheep.  I want to decide whether I accept help and under what  conditions.  I do not want to give up my freedom for a loaf of bread and a bottle of water.

• I need to be diligent in listening to the voice of warning, be that a living prophet, the whisperings of the Holy Ghost or the counsel of a local priesthood leader.  Satan laughs at our suffering when we adopt the attitude of "all is well in Zion" and fail to take heed in time.

• Should a call or prompting come to take my family and leave on short notice, will I be willing and in a position to do so, thus avoiding the full impact of a disaster?  Jerusalem wasn't under siege when Lehi took his family into the wilderness.  Noah built his ark in a desert during a drought over a hundred years before the rains came.  How often did the Lord instruct the Nephites in bondage to flee in the night before the Lamanites could stop them?  The early LDS Saints's tragedy at Haun's Mill would have been averted had the Saints given heed to the Prophet Joseph's warning to gather together with the main body of Saints for safety rather than stay at the homestead of Bro. Haun.  Will I go, or will I regret, saying "things aren't so bad!  I'll be alright."

• What preparations do I need to make to be able to leave on a moments notice, whether for just 72 hours or for an extended period of time?  Are my cars in good working order and filled with gas?  Do I have an evacuation and communication plan for my family so everyone knows what to do, where to meet, who to contact if we're separated?  Do I have have financial reserves for fuel, a hotel, or other unexpected needs?  Are my emergency supplies organized and updated?

• The Lord and his chosen leaders of our Church don't always warn us away from tragedy and crisis. The righteous often suffer right along with the wicked and unbelievers, whether it be in daily hardships (unemployment, illness, untimely loss of loved ones) or local disasters.  We are called on to endure with faith and reach out to others, lifting their spirits and lessening their burdens.

I continue to pray for relief for those who suffer.  I continue to contribute my Fast Offerings.  I will make a renewed effort to help the Humanitarian Fund as I am always filled with peace to know that the Church is among the first to have relief supplies on the ground following any disaster.  I will also continue to do the best I can wherever I am called to serve until I am called to do otherwise.