SS #5: Evacuate or Shelter in Place

How do you decide if you will Evacuate or Shelter in Place following an emergency?

Scriptures

D&C 45:57 For they that are wise and have received the truth, and have taken the Holy Spirit for their guide, and have not been deceived—verily I say unto you, they shall not be hewn down and cast into the fire, but shall abide the day.

Jacob 3:4 And the time speedily cometh, that except ye repent they shall possess the land of your inheritance, and the Lord God will lead away the righteous out from among you. 

D&C 112:10 Be thou humble; and the Lord thy God shall lead thee by the hand, and give thee answer to thy prayers.

Questions to ask yourself:

• Short-term or Long-term evacuation?
• Is Evacuation Forced or Optional?
• Emergency vs. Disaster vs. Grid-down Event? Risk varies by the hazard
• What are the risks of staying home?
• What are the risks of evacuating?
• What are the trigger events that would signal a time to evacuate?
• Do I wait until everyone else is evacuating?

Consider your answers in light of the 7 Risk Priorities:

1. Violence
2. Sickness/Injury
3. Lack of, or Poor, Communication
4. Lack of, or Poor, Organization
5. Dehydration
6. Hyper/Hypothermia (shelter)
7. Starvation

Also remember how to mitigate each of these risks, whether your stay home or evacuate:

1. Defend yourself, family and community.
2. Provide medical care.
3. Use non-standard communications.
4. Use ICS (Incident Command System)
5. Produce, filter and purify water.
6. Provide basic shelter.
7. Provide initial food supply and grow more.

"Shelter-in-place" means selecting an interior room or rooms within your facility, or ones with no or few windows, and taking refuge there. In many cases, local authorities will issue advice to shelter-in-place via TV or radio.

Sheltering At Home

Reasons you might choose to shelter in place:

• Familiarity of home & neighborhood
• Emotional stability
• Comforts of home, everything within reach
• Protect home from looters
• Local police protection?
• No means of evacuating
• Nowhere to go
• Better than the Superdome!
• Pets & farm animals
• Job or other responsibilities prevent you from leaving
• Roadblocks
• Disaster could be in winter
• Protection from severe weather

Risks / Hazards of sheltering in place:

• Home may not be stable
• Local resources may be limited or overwhelmed
• Maurading gangs
• May be difficult to defend your home 24/7
• Opportunity to evacuate may be limited

Evacuation

Risks / Hazards of evacuating:

• Safety in numbers IF joining with like-minded people
• Safer if home is unstable
• Avoid marauding gangs?
• Lack of local resources
• Invitation from the prophet?
• Seek family

Risks / Hazards of Evacuation:

• Exposed to weather extremes
• Hotels are costly, may be over-booked
• Cannot take all your necessities
• Home left unsecured
• Roads may be gridlocked
• Possible fuel shortages
• May lose your job
• Some family may refuse or be unable to join you
• Emotional insecurity of the unknown
• Highly emotional & desperate people all jammed together on the highways and at gas stations
• Could get stuck in crowded or unsanitary shelter
• May be caught by marauding gangs

You may be FORCED to evacuate in some circumstances, such as:

• Severe event: home may not be livable, either temporarily or permanently
• Neighborhood at risk: fire, flood, toxins, radiation, foreign invasion
• Pandemic: Ebola, Bioterrorism
• Sewage backup

Consider the recent Oroville, CA dam evacuation crisis.

Evacuating residents stuck in gridlock traffic.

Hundreds of cars in wall-to-wall traffic can be seen on Highway 99 as people stream out of Oroville away from the dam.

Comments from local residents:

"We had less than 1 hour’s notice to evacuate!"

"We had nothing ready!"

"We vow to ALWAYS be packed and ready to evacuate from now on!"

Recent KSL Headlines:

With More Rain Likely, Logan City Working to Stay Ahead of Sewage Problems Feb. 14, 2017

Raw Sewage Floods Farr West Neighborhood Feb. 9, 2017

14 Homes Evacuated After Mudslide in Woodland Hills Aug. 14, 2015

Consider organizing, copying, consolidating Irreplaceable Documents & other items, such as:

• Patriarchal Blessings
• Family Photos in Digital Form—CD/DVD, Thumb drive, External Hard Drive
• Scrapbooks or Photos to Grab if Time Allows
• Back-up of Computer Files
• Insurance Contacts
• Home Deeds, Mortgage Info.

Remember the concept of layers on how it might affect your evacuation planning.  For example, will you be evacuating with just the clothes on your back or will you have time to grab a tent?  Do you have a camper trailer, or perhaps even a cabin to which you will evacuate for shelter?

Is your plan written down?  Does EVERYONE know the plan? Do you have a plan for your workplace?

• Where will we meet?  When?
• How long will we wait for everyone to show up?
• Who will pick the kids up from school?
• What route will we take out of town?  Is there an alternate route?

If you don’t have a Plan B, 

you don’t have a plan.

Consider compiling a Grab-n-Go Binder

• Organize a Binder with Lists of items that need to be gathered from Each Room if evacuating.
• Make a list of things for Brief Evacuations and a more expanded list for Long-term Bug Out.
• Bold or highlight items that you grab only for a brief evacuation (<2 wks).  Grab everything if you don't know when (or if) you will return.

Sample: Kitchen

• Can Opener
• Cutting boards
• Garbage Bags
• All sharp knives
• Towels/hotpads
• 2 WMF Pressure cookers
• Cheese slicers
• Silver Trashcan
• All Silicon stuff (Muffin cups, Bread pan etc.)
• Metal Bread pans
• All Cast-iron pans and Skillet
• Metal mixing bowls
• Cheese grater
• Popcorn/kettlecorn maker
• Ktech Bread mixer and ALL Parts and Blender
• Stock pot and stainless steel pans
• Pitcher with Green lid
• Rolling pin
• All Potato Peelers

Sample: Under Kitchen Sink

• All plastic Gloves
• Dish Soap
• Disinfecting wipes
• Handsoap
• Steel scrubbers
• Scotchbright scrubbers
• Bottle Brush
• Scrubrushes

Sample: Pantry

• All buckets of food
• All candles / matches / lighters
• Paper goods
• All Medicines
• Fire extinguisher
• Popcorn/kettle maker
• Big Metal and Glass mixing bowls
• All Spices and rack on door
• Jugs of oils, vinegar and syrups
• Aprons
• Cookbooks
• Empty Ice-cream buckets
• Dog Toothbrushes

 More thoughts on Sheltering in Place:

Don't try to heat the whole house in winter with limited resources.  Heat just the room(s) you use the most, such as the kitchen or family room.  Seal them off with blankets, doors, plastic to trap the heat.  Then sleep in the cooler rooms, or even all together.  Buddy Heaters (Mr. Buddy, Big Buddy, etc.) are approved for indoor use.  Beware of many heaters that create deadly carbon monoxide.  Keep fresh batteries in your CO2 monitors

• Do You Know Your Block Captain?
• Do you have your Emergency Window Placard handy?
• Have you check on the neighbors to each side and across the street?
• Are you a trained CERT member?
• Don’t Just Sit Around – Do Something!
• Volunteer with the Red Cross
• Check on your neighbors
• Participate in CERT
• Teach others what you have learned to conserve (heat, fuel, electricity, food)

Would the Prophet every ask us to leave our homes?  What is the scriptural / historical pattern?

Consider the following examples (not in any particular order):

1.       Brother of Jared leaves Babel

2.       Lehi & family leave Jerusalem

3.       Ishmael and his family join Lehi in fleeing Jerusalem.

4.       Mulek leaves Jerusalem

5.       Alma & followers flee from wicked King Noah

6.       Alma's fleeing from Lamanite bondage (Mosiah 24)

7.       Puritans and Pilgrims flee England to America

8.       Moses & the children of Israel flee Egypt

9.       Enoch & his city flee before the flood (Moses 7:27)

10.   Noah flees the world on an ark.

11.   Mary and Joseph flee to Egypt

12.   Saints fleeing from Jerusalem and Titus in 70 A.D.

13.   Limhi's people fleeing  from the Lamanites (Mosiah 22:6-13)

14.   Nephi fleeing from Laman and Lemuel

15.   Ammon and his Anti-Nephi-Lehi's fleeing the Lamanites (Alma 27)

16.   Mosiah flees the Land of Nephi into the wilderness (Omni 1:12)

17.   Joseph of Aramathea in Jewish legend driven from Jerusalem in a boat with Mary, Martha, Lazarus, Mary Magdalene and others.

18.   The ten tribes fleeing from bondage into the north countries.

19.   Abraham flees from Ur of the Chaldees.  (Heb. 11:8, Abr. 2:3)

20.   Another Jewish legend of Jeremiah fleeing to Egypt and then to England and Ireland before destruction of Jerusalem.

21.   Lot flees Sodom and Gomorrah

22.   The Nephits flee from their homes and gather together to fight the Lamanites and Gadiantons, pooling all their supplies for 7 years.

23.   Amulek flees from Ammoniah (Alma 15:16)

24.   Zoramites cast out and flee to Jershon (Alma 35)

25.   The people of Ammon vacate Jershon so the Nephites can battle the Lamanites. (Alma 35:13)

26.   Jacob flees to Egypt to get food.

27.   The saints flee Kirtland to go to Missouri

28.   The saints flee Missouri to go to Nauvoo

29.   The saints flee Nauvoo for Salt Lake

30.   Adam and Eve have to leave the Garden of Eden to start a new life.

31.   Hyrum Smith received a revelation saying his life was in danger and to move his family from Palmyra to Colesville, N.Y. He packed that night and left the next morning. "Life of Joseph Smith by His Mother"

32.   Father Smith's life was in jeopardy. He was warned to flee but didn't leave soon enough and was thrown into prison where he spent a month. After his release he immediately moved his family to Waterloo, NY and most of the Smith family would never see Palmyra again. "Life of Joseph Smith by his Mother"

33.   Joseph and Emma flee Palmyra with the gold plates to live in Harmony, Pa.

34.   Joseph flees from Harmony

35.   The saints fleeing U.S. marshals into Mexico to save their families.

36.   Moroni flees the rest of his life from the Lamanites.

37.   People of Limhi deliver themselves from bondage by departing into the wilderness with tents, flocks, families. They couldn't do it by the sword--were out-numbered. Went out the back pass. Mosiah 22:2 

38.   Zoramites find out which people believe Alma's and Amulek's words and cast them out of the land. They go to Jershon Alma 35:6-9. Verse 14 "Those who repented were driven out of the land."

39.   Peter, James, and John, "And straight way they forsook their nets and followed Him." Mark 1:16-18

40.   Jesus fleeing Nazareth when they tried to kill him, never to return to his home town.

41.   Omer is warned to flee because Akish and his secret band are going to kill him so Akish can marry Jared's daughter and give Jared the kingdom. Ether 9:3

42.   The people in the city Moroni fled to the city Nephihah. Alma 51:24

43.   Jacob fled when Simeon his son killed those who had abducted his daughter Dinah.

44.   Enos, the son of Seth, the son of Adam, fled with "the residue of the people of God" and "came out from the land, which was called Shulon, and dwelt in a of promise..."  Moses 6:17.

45.   Saints in Europe coming to Utah in mass exodus.

46.   Many of our grandparents or ancestors individually answered the call of Joseph Smith to immigrate to America and join with the saints in Utah. Left their homelands and relatives.

47.   No sooner had the Pioneers settled themselves with good herds and good homes than they were called to leave it all and settle St. George, the San Juan, Arizona and other places in-between, and often more than once.

SS #4: Survival Psychology

This PSYCHOLOGICAL PREPARATION class was presented by David & Belinda Bringhurst.
David is a professor of social work and was a psychologist for the US Air Force.

HILL'S ABCX MODEL OF FAMILY STRESS (Family Stress Theory, Reuben Hill)

ABC=X (or A x B x C = X)

(A) Stressors

(B) Internal Family Resources & Informal/Formal Social Supports

(C) Family Perception & Parental Self-Efficacy

= (X) Crisis

Could be applied to disaster and crisis preparedness

(A) Stressor event

(B) Resources (level of preparedness)

(C) Perception of A & B (highly impacted by normalcy bias)

= (X) level of crisis/adjustment

Low levels of resources/preparedness (B) and/or faulty perceptions (see normalcy bias below) or negative perceptions (C) leads to a stressor event becoming a larger crisis (or more difficult to adjust to), sometimes regardless of the magnitude of stressor event (A).

"The normalcy bias...is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects, because it causes people to have a *bias* to believe that things will always function the way things *normally* function. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare and, on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations.

The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred, it never will occur. It can result in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation" (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias).

"Normalcy bias (sociology): The phenomenon of disbelieving one's situation when faced with grave and imminent danger and/or catastrophe. As in overfocusing on the actual phenomenon instead of taking evasive action, a state of paralysis" (https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/normalcy_bias).

"Rounding out the theories about normalcy bias is the idea that people need information in order to act. If people don't know how to deal with a situation, they can't begin to deal with it, so they don't begin to deal with it."

"Nothing can be done about sudden shocks and natural instincts, so most researchers try to deal in increased information. This is why we're given countless safety lectures. Look at the exits and plan your exit route. In the event of an earthquake, a fire, a flood, do this. Drills and practices, even if only done in a person's imagination, at least give them the basic tools that they need when dealing with an emergency."

"More complicated...is the need to personalize the risk. This information — that the present disaster will harm you, yes you, so take action — is the hardest to accurately disseminate. People mill, asking for opinions, because they want to be told that everything is fine. They will keep asking, and delaying, until they get the answer they want. In a completely alien emergency situation — such as a downed, flaming plane — people think of the likelihood that they're mistaken about the nature of the emergency, and the consequences for screwing up if they take personal action. Although early warning systems, alarms, and alerts proliferate, very few things manage to get through to specific people that they are in personal danger, that they are on their own, and that they need to take steps to save themselves" (http://io9.gizmodo.com/the-frozen-calm-of-normalcy-bias-486764924, para. 5-7).

D&C 38:30 "...but if ye are prepared ye shall not fear."

Example of normalcy bias: everyone around Noah. People believing things will always function the way things "normally" function. Whereas Noah, due to his spiritual connection with the Lord was able to believe the disaster was coming, and that the disaster would be immense.

Hebrews 11:7 "By faith Noah, being warned of God of things not seen as yet, moved with fear, prepared an ark to the saving of his house; by the which he condemned the world, and became heir of the righteousness which is by faith." Footnote defines fear as caution or reverence.

Alma 34:34 "Ye cannot say, when ye are brought to that awful crisis, that I will  [prepare], that I will return to my God. Nay, ye cannot say this; for that same spirit which doth possess your bodies [before a disaster occurs], that same spirit will have power to possess your body [after the disaster occurs]." Alternate phrasing added.

BELINDA'S NOTES

1. Why psychological preparedness?-Being Psychologically prepared helps you to cope better in the moment and reduces acute post-incident distress. 

2. It takes only 2 steps to become psychologically prepared for anything that this world can dish out. A. Take the Holy Spirit as your guide.    B. Repent regularly (daily).

The Holy Spirit will warn you ahead of time, prepare you. It will sustain you during, and will comfort you after, and emergency. It will teach you throughout. It is gentle, accurate, and exactly what you need. Repent means to return back to seeing things as God does.  (see Bible Dictionary).

3. 2 Nephi 32:3. "The words of Christ (scripture, prophets, Holy Ghost) will tell you all things what you should do." 

Proverbs 14:26 "In the fear (absolute trust) of the Lord is strong confidence and his children shall have a place of refuge." 

The goal of trauma recovery is to create safety and restore empowerment to a victim.  Think of all the great heroes of the scriptures.  They had absolute trust in God. Their safety came from being obedient to His words (scriptures, prophets, Holy Spirit). Fear was swallowed up by faith and charity.   Do they feel Safe? Do they feel empowered or victimized? “To be acted upon”

4. Getting over the normalcy bias: What emergencies could you face in your area? What would you be facing in each situation? My plan: Organize, practice, Trust in God (do what the prophets have asked) Prepare for the moment when all you have may not be enough. It could be that the thing that will be required for your exaltation is a test where you lose it all. Obedience will unlock promises. You may see miracles like the never emptying number 10 can of food.

5. D&C 46:8 "beware lest ye deceived." 2 Peter 3:3-4 "In the last days there shall come scoffers, walking in their own lusts, denying the Lord Jesus Christ and saying, where is the promise of his coming? For since the fathers fell asleep all things must continue as they are, and have continued as they are from the beginning of creation".To me "walking in their own lusts" means the natural man is in charge, and "denying the Lord" means ignoring his words (scriptures, prophets, Holy Spirit) and by seeking safety and refuge somewhere else (addictions). “Fathers fell asleep” could mean "passed on".

6. Face your fears. Take time to be mindful of them, then either surrender the things you cannot change or do something about it.

Testimony: I know I can receive guidance through the Holy Spirit. It will tell me all things I need to know and do. And I think it will do this line upon line, and it will be just right.

Lessons Learned from Getting Stuck in the Mud

While looking for an area for family weekend getaways, my wife & I wanted to check out a place in the hills above Indianola.  This is a semi-remote, rural area about 45 minutes from home, but we had a little time in the late afternoon before some scheduled visits I had set up, so we figured there was time for a quick trip before it got dark.  The snow had been melting rapidly with the warm weather and many roads had cleared up considerably.  Just a few days previous we had been out and had no significant problems aside from some slippery mud.

Going up the dirt road, things were wet, but well packed.  We came to a point where the snow began and saw someone had parked there side-by-side UTV with snow trax where they had stashed their car for a trip to town (clue #1).  The snow on the road was slushy, but we still had plenty of traction to move forward, so on we went.  We found the turn-off for the next road we needed and discovered that nobody had traveled it recently and the snow was twice as deep (clue #2).  Still, I figured that this was just an effect of being on the shadowy side of the hill and that it would get easier the further we went.  Delia was voicing her concerns about getting stuck (clue #3), but I’m a guy with a 4X4 with new mud tires and not afraid of a little snow as long as I can back up if things get too deep.  Well, the steepness increased and the snow got too deep to move forward, so it was time to admit defeat and go home. 

All we had to do was back down the hill the way we had come until we found a place to turn around. That’s when nature & physics overturned our confidence & plans.  The deep snow conspired with the sideways slant to the road to ever so steadily slide us closer to the soft shoulder where we started sinking into the mud.  Stuffing some branches under the tires got us moving downhill again, but nothing we did got us back up onto the road, only further along and deeper into the muddy ditch.  Finally, we were high-centered, not only on snow, but a small boulder or large rock about 12-15 inches across.

We spent the next hour digging out the snow, packing sticks & car mats under the tires, but one wheel was still too high to get any traction and would just spin, taking all the power away from the other tires.  We jacked up the car enough to get off the rock, but the one front tire was still in too deep to get us out.  Darkness was upon us.  It was time to walk.  There had been at least one home that looked like someone would be home.  Here is where we really felt foolish.  We teach others about emergency preparedness and survival planning, yet here we were wearing cotton jeans, no gloves (each of our jackets almost always have a pair of gloves) or hats, no emergency food or supplies, even though twice in the past 3 days we had been fully prepared for just such an event, but had taken everything out of the Suburban except for some water bottles and the snow shovels.  At least we had the presence of mind to bring some snow boots “just in case.”

Back at the main road, we saw evidence that the snow trax side-by-side had already returned from town, so we missed that potential rescue.  Two miles down, we found the only occupied home.  However, the shirtless guy eating his dinner & watching Star Trek had already helped at least 20 other idiots this winter and was not about to attempt another rescue, nor was he willing to give us a ride back to town where we could seek other help.  Three miles later walking steadily into a brisk wind, we picked up cell service and called a friend to come pick us up, planning to come back the next day with tire chains & another rig to pull the Suburban out of the ditch.  No activities were going on at the local church which was all locked up.  We found a home with lights on, knocked on the door and begged for a warm place to wait for our friend.  We were welcomed in by the lady and her two friendly dogs.  Awhile later, her husband arrived and offered to pull us out with his Ford F-350 PowerStroke.  I figured, if anything has the power, that big truck would do the job, if we could get back up there in the dark.  The light rear end and all-season radials made for a challenge getting back up the mountain, but we did manage and sure enough, were able to yank the Suburban out of the ditch and back onto the road only a little worse for the wear.

Trying to back down the road seemed a bit risky, so we shoveled out a driveway entrance and got the Suburban turned around and headed the right direction.  However, getting that huge F-350 turned around proved to be too much.  We soon found ourselves using the freshly rescued Suburban to pull the truck up out of the snow-filled ditch on the other side of the road, more than once.  With the truck stuck sideways with no traction and the Suburban on the uphill side of the road, we were facing another 5 mile walk back to town.  Fortunately, the Suburban had the power and traction needed to get the truck back onto the road.  Now, we just had to carefully back downhill without sliding into a ditch again, or worse, into a ravine that passed close to the roadway in one spot.  Once down and turned around, we headed back down the mountain and found Delia & our friend, Dave, waiting just beyond the snow in case we did have to make that walk.  No sooner than we got squared away, the storm arrived with a fury, unleashing sleet & snow for another late winter storm that left 4 – 6 inches of wet white stuff at home (and over a foot by that evening), which was probably a foot or more of fresh powder in Indianola.    Almost 7 hours after leaving, we were back in the safety & comfort of our home.

Lessons learned:

·         There is a difference between moving forward until you can progress no further (then having to backtrack) and getting stuck.  Wisdom is knowing when to turn around before you can’t avoid getting stuck.

·         Choose your spouse wisely.  When life’s challenges arise, or you get stuck in remote places, you might as well have your best friend by your side. 

·         Guys: listen to your wives.  They have wisdom and insight that trump your overconfidence.

·         Ladies: even with saying “I told you so”, you’re still stuck in the mud.  Nobody plans on getting stuck.

·         A large rock will hold you fast in a fixed position and keep you from being moved against all efforts to dislodge you.  Just like having your faith anchored on the rock of Christ will keep your faith solid in the face of social opposition.

·         Good friends will come to your rescue. Even if you ultimately don’t utilize their help, you still need them.

·         Some people suffer from compassion fatigue and no longer care about helping others in need.

·         The world is full of people who are unsympathetic to your problems and are unwilling to help you out.  Don’t assume that everyone falls into that category.  Give everyone the benefit of being a Good Samaritan and proving that there are still good people out there.  It simply may be the last house you come to.

·         Don’t begrudge those who are unwilling to help you.  You don’t know what life events led them to their decision.  You may just be interrupting their dinner & movie, or there may be deeper issues you do not see.

·         Good tires may trump a bigger truck.

·         Having confidence in your skills and trusting your gear is good.  That’s how we have courage to tackle hard things and take new adventures.  Just realize that ignoring common sense will lead to trouble in spite of your confidence & skills.

·         If you think you should buy snowchains, buy the snowchains…now, before you get stuck.

·         You cannot solve all of your problems by yourself.  You must seek help from others, even strangers.  Your problems may be designed to bless / teach not only you, but to give others an opportunity to show compassion.

·         Some problems cannot be prayed away.  God does not solve all your problems.  Sometimes you simply have to get down in the mud or walk 5 miles in a storm to find solutions.

·         “You are exactly where you deserve to be in life based on the decisions you have made up to this point in your life.” –Russell M. Nelson (paraphrased)

·         After being rescued, you may have to turn around and rescue the rescuer.

·         Emergencies often don’t arise when you are prepared for them, so try to be prepared at all times to deal with the unexpected.

·         If you have the gear & tools to get out of trouble, take them with you, even (especially?) when you don’t think you’ll need them.

·         Confidence simply means you don’t understand the seriousness of your current predicament.

·         You really do need to clear all obstacles before you can move forward freely.

·         Instead of cursing God for your misfortunes that are natural events of life and your own decisions, look for evidence of His hand holding back the rain & snow until you’ve freed yourself from your problems.  But don’t curse God even if He lets the rain & snow fall on you.  Someone else may be praying for rain.

SS Lesson #2: Pre-Event Planning & Assessment

Will you just Survive or Thrive?

Planning will determine whether an unexpected event becomes an Adventure or a Disaster.

HOPE Is NOT A PLAN

“Then whosoever heareth the sound of the trumpet, and taketh not warning; if the sword come, and take him away, his blood shall be upon his own head. He heard the sound of the trumpet, and took not warning; his blood shall be upon him. But he that taketh warning shall deliver his soul. But if the watchman see the sword come, and blow not the trumpet, and the people be not warned; if the sword come, and take [any] person from among them, he is taken away in his iniquity; but his blood will I require at the watchman’s hand.” Ezekiel 33:4

“Too often we bask in our comfortable complacency and rationalize that the ravages of war, economic disaster, famine, and earthquake cannot happen here. Those who believe this are either not acquainted with the revelations of the Lord, or they do not believe them. Those who smugly think these calamities will not happen, that they somehow will be set aside because of the righteousness of the Saints, are deceived and will rue  the day they harbored such a delusion. The Lord has  warned and forewarned us against a day of great tribulation and given us counsel, through His servants, on how we can be prepared for these difficult times. Have we heeded His counsel?”   -- Pres. Ezra T. Benson

5 Levels of Preparation

Level 0: Every emergency is a disaster

•Less than two weeks of food in the house

•No water purification system

•No bug-out bag / 72 hr. kit

•No defensive weapons

•No way to produce their own food

•No physical gold or silver

•No tangible assets to barter

Failure to Plan is Planning to Fail

Level 1: Can Survive Two Weeks of Minor Emergency 

(such as ice storm)

•Have sufficient food and water for two weeks of emergency

•Able to heat their home for two weeks without relying on the power grid by use of kerosene heater or fireplace

•Able to cook their meals for two weeks without relying on the power grid

•Has a first aid kit

•Likely has no defensive weapons

•Must leave their home after two weeks due to lack of preparation

Level 2: Can Survive One Month of an Emergency

(such as major hurricane)

•Likely has a portable power generator and sufficient fuel for one month of operation

•Has handguns or shotgun and the skills to defend their home

•Has a month’s work of canned goods to eat

•Has sufficient prescription medicines for 30 days

•Has enough batteries for power a portable radio for 30 days

Level 3: Can Survive Three Months of an Emergency

(such as martial law or impacting earthquake)

•Has a deep-short term pantry

•Likely has a water purification system

•Likely has defensive weapon for each family member

•Likely has some type of neighborhood safety watch or

•24 hour security watch rotation at the home

•Has stocked wood to burn in fireplace and/or iron stove

•Has communication gear to keep track of local and world events

•Has means to recharge batteries without relying on power grid

•Has three months of prescription medicines

Level 4: Can Survive One Year of an Emergency

(such as currency devaluation, economic depression)

•Has a deep short- and long-term food pantry

•Likely has their own garden to produce food

•Likely has small-sized farm animals to produce protein (chickens, goats, rabbits)

•Has a deep supply of ammo (2000+ rounds per weapon)

•Has a spare weapon in event of damage

•Has means to produce herbal medicines to replace prescriptions

•Has a long-term store of antibiotics

•Likely has dog for security watch

•Has full 24 hour rotation of security watch on the home (requires 6 adults)

•Has secondary off-site storage of food, weapons, and ammo

•Is ready to bug-out with full hiking and camping gear, if security situation degrades

•Is able to educate their children at home

Level 5: Can Survive Indefinitely from their Home during a 

Multi-year National Emergency Situation

•Has a fully functioning large garden or small farm for food production

•Is able to can and store the results of food harvest for the coming year

•Is able to harvest seeds for next year’s planting

•Is able to raise multiple generations of farm animals (cattle, sheep, horses)

•Has horses for local and distance travel

•Has enough ammo to last a generation (10,000+ rounds per weapon)

•Has spares of each weapon and lots of extra magazines

•Able to generate their own fuel (bio-diesel, alcohol)

•Likely has fully functional solar power bank with deep storage batteries

•Has natural on-site water sources for farm and home

•Has home-based business to generate income

•Is able to build new building and make any necessary repairs to existing buildings

•Is able to provide excess food for charity

•Has a secondary residency (such as mountain cabin) for full bug-out

•Is prepared for minor surgery and child birth at home

•Has stores of gold and silver for barter

•Is able to produce their own clothing (from raw wool or raw cotton with spinning wheel and small loom)

Being Prepared vs. Going Primitive

•One principle of life that we all can agree on is that tomorrow always comes and that bad things do happen. 

•If you don’t have a Plan B, you don’t have a plan.

Mother Nature does not adjust her risks and hazards to match your level of skill and preparation.

Remembering Your Future:

Preparing for a camping trip…The preparation is so painful, takes so much time, is so stressful that it makes everyone miserable, yet it is so vital to the success of the trip.  Make it part of the JOURNEY!

Envisioning the memories…Even in the miserable moments (mosquitoes, rain, equipment failure, lost) envision the bragging points. How will your retell your adventure?

Take a couple simple common occurrences for examples. 

Do you have a jack & spare tire in your car for the unexpected flat on the highway?  (Is that not a form of emergency preparedness?)  Do you know how to use the jack and other tools to change the tire?  Is the spare tire inflated? 

If you are properly prepared, you deal with the flat as an inconvenience and get back on the road.  You might even use those resources to help someone else in need that was less prepared. 

On the other hand, if you are not adequately prepared, and nobody else comes to your rescue, you are left with the most primitive mode of transportation: namely walking (what sort of shoes are you wearing right now?).

In February, 2015, a bitter snowstorm left over 160,000 residents of Georgia without power for several days.  How often does that happen in the Deep South?  Depending on your resources, you might have a generator to restore at least some lights and run the furnaces, perhaps even the refrigerator.  A kerosene heater or wood stove might heat one room where everyone can huddle together for warmth.  A solar generator could provide some lighting, and run a radio or a couple small appliances.  A camp stove would enable you to heat some soup.  If you are less prepared, you may only have a few candles, a flashlight with no spare batteries, and inadequate winter clothing to enable going outside for more than a few minutes before risking hypothermia.  Your day may begin and end with the rising and setting of the sun just like it did for the Pioneers.

Can you afford to be wrong in your emergency preparations & planning? Some people have the attitude that nothing serious is going to happen, at least not to them. If that is your belief, you had better be absolutely certain that you are right, because if you are wrong, you are in big trouble.  However, if you plan for the worst and you are wrong (ie. nothing happens, or only minor problems arise), No Problem! You have your gear and resources for another day or for a great camping trip!  Can you see the difference?  On one hand it’s OK to be wrong, while on the other hand there is only disaster and tragedy.

The Principle of the Parachute says:

You must have a parachute before you need a parachute
You must have your parachute with you when you need it
Your parachute must be in working condition when you need it
Your parachute should be made of the highest quality materials
You need to know how to use your parachute and have practiced using it before hand so that you can use it properly during an emergency
Your parachute needs to have been packed by a trustworthy parachute packer

In Sports...success or failure on the field of play is determined months before the actual game is played by how much dedication the athletes displayed during practice.

LDS Preparedness Manual (not produced by the LDS Church)

This book is WORTHLESS if you put it in your bookshelf with the intention of only reading it after an emergency strikes. It is NOT a Survival manual intended to be used after the fact.

This is a PREPAREDNESS manual that can only help you if you read it in advance and follow it’s suggestions to prepare and get ready for the emergency BEFORE IT HAPPENS!

Free Download: www.LDSAVOW.com

Life isn’t FAIR!

Plan Accordingly.

Remember the Seven Preparedness Risk Priorities?  If not, a quick review…

1. Violence
2. Sickness/Injury
3. Lack of, or Poor, Communication
4. Lack of, or Poor, Organization
5. Dehydration
6. Hyper/Hypothermia (shelter)
7. Starvation

Failure to properly mitigate these threats/risks in the proper order will result in failure. And failure will not be pleasant, usually with fatal or near-fatal results.

Why in that particular order? The order is based on the “fatality factor.”  What can kill you, or your family, the quickest?

You mitigate those threats/risks by having the ability to:

1. Defend yourself, family and community.
2. Provide medical care.
3. Use non-standard communications.
4. Use ICS (Incident Command System)
5. Produce, filter and purify water.
6. Provide basic shelter.
7. Provide initial food supply and grow more.